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Red59
505017.3
838512.7
718817.8
Blue51
213725.8
309810.4
552710.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions45480204060801005951

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7188
#11
17.80.5
12.413.0
Auto7.9
Teleop7.6
End2.3
blue by 8.0
25.80.4
23.624.0
Auto9.0
Teleop15.0
End1.9
Second
5050
#15
17.30.5
15.516.1
Auto6.3
Teleop8.1
End2.9
red by 6.5
5527
#13
10.80.4
8.58.9
Auto1.5
Teleop6.9
End2.4
Third
8385
#16
12.70.5
13.213.7
Auto3.6
Teleop7.8
End1.3
red by 2.3
3098
#34
10.40.4
11.111.5
Auto2.8
Teleop5.3
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
14%Melody oddsMissed16%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
38%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed