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Red60
71459.9
543635.5
653210.1
Blue66
961815.4
30813.6
296019.7
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50440204060806066

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.50.7
30.631.3
Auto13.3
Teleop18.7
End3.4
red by 15.8
2960
#18
19.70.7
19.920.6
Auto7.1
Teleop9.1
End3.5
Second
6532
#30
10.11.1
8.810.0
Auto3.5
Teleop6.3
End0.3
blue by 5.4
9618
#28
15.40.7
7.98.6
Auto2.7
Teleop11.0
End1.7
Third
7145
#24
9.90.7
5.36.0
Auto3.6
Teleop4.8
End1.4
blue by 3.7
308
#13
13.60.7
13.013.7
Auto5.0
Teleop6.4
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
33%Melody oddsEarned25%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
23%Ensemble oddsMissed27%Ensemble oddsEarned