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Red50
611418.4
721124.7
92067.9
Blue77
295927.9
687712.9
323416.5
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5254406070805077

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.70.2
21.621.8
Auto7.5
Teleop14.0
End3.2
blue by 3.2
27.91.9
25.327.2
Auto8.8
Teleop16.9
End2.2
Second
6114
#20
18.40.2
17.918.1
Auto6.8
Teleop10.4
End1.2
red by 1.9
3234
#32
16.52.3
13.015.3
Auto7.1
Teleop7.4
End1.9
Third
9206
#39
7.90.2
7.77.9
Auto4.4
Teleop3.0
End0.5
blue by 5.0
6877
#15
12.91.9
10.412.2
Auto4.6
Teleop6.2
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
54%Melody oddsEarned44%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed13%Ensemble oddsMissed