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Red50
310019.5
523218.9
302316.6
Blue40
388317.6
641910.9
222713.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions354102060801005040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3100
#25
19.51.9
10.512.4
Auto8.8
Teleop8.6
End2.1
red by 1.9
3883
#27
17.60.4
15.115.5
Auto5.7
Teleop9.5
End2.4
Second
5232
#17
18.91.9
10.512.4
Auto4.6
Teleop9.5
End4.8
red by 5.1
2227
#39
13.80.4
10.511.0
Auto5.1
Teleop5.8
End2.9
Third
3023
#14
16.61.9
11.613.6
Auto5.4
Teleop10.3
End1.0
red by 5.7
6419
#45
10.90.4
10.410.8
Auto5.3
Teleop4.0
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
16%Melody oddsMissed9%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed