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Red58
642121.4
9325.2
451114.7
Blue87
282322.7
297722.1
569023.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions585640506070805887

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
93
#11
25.20.7
20.220.8
Auto7.3
Teleop16.0
End1.9
red by 1.3
5690
#25
23.83.5
14.818.3
Auto7.8
Teleop13.8
End2.3
Second
6421
#32
21.40.7
17.418.1
Auto9.0
Teleop11.3
End1.1
blue by 1.2
22.73.5
17.821.3
Auto7.9
Teleop13.5
End1.2
Third
4511
#26
14.70.7
14.515.2
Auto5.0
Teleop8.6
End1.1
blue by 7.5
22.13.5
18.121.6
Auto5.7
Teleop14.6
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
57%Melody oddsEarned40%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed