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Red92
329722.4
313029.1
422618.5
Blue65
617523.3
757819.6
604520.1
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions707050556065758085909265

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.11.8
25.827.6
Auto12.4
Teleop15.2
End1.5
red by 5.9
6175
#43
23.30.2
23.323.5
Auto7.5
Teleop14.6
End1.2
Second
3297
#11
22.41.8
20.822.6
Auto9.1
Teleop8.2
End5.2
red by 2.4
6045
#30
20.10.2
19.519.7
Auto6.4
Teleop11.3
End2.4
Third
4226
#19
18.51.8
16.718.5
Auto6.9
Teleop7.6
End3.9
blue by 1.1
7578
#13
19.60.2
19.719.9
Auto7.7
Teleop9.8
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
57%Melody oddsEarned79%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
66%Ensemble oddsEarned17%Ensemble oddsMissed