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Red41
420719.2
52716.4
361014.1
Blue40
245014.0
466414.7
24989.9
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions423602060801001201404140

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4207
#40
19.20.7
17.016.3
Auto8.4
Teleop8.2
End2.5
red by 4.5
4664
#31
14.70.2
10.710.8
Auto5.7
Teleop8.1
End0.8
Second
3610
#26
14.10.7
12.511.8
Auto7.2
Teleop6.2
End0.6
red by 0.1
2450
#23
14.00.1
14.414.5
Auto4.0
Teleop9.2
End0.8
Third
5271
#57
6.40.4
7.57.1
Auto3.8
Teleop2.0
End0.6
blue by 3.5
2498
#58
9.90.2
8.58.6
Auto3.2
Teleop6.2
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody oddsMissed19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsEarned17%Ensemble oddsMissed