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Red70
392625.2
250819.9
300713.4
Blue87
419815.7
284619.8
253029.2
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions506402040801001201407087

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.21.6
20.422.0
Auto11.2
Teleop11.8
End2.2
blue by 4.0
29.21.4
25.927.2
Auto10.5
Teleop16.4
End2.3
Second
19.91.6
16.818.3
Auto9.5
Teleop9.1
End1.3
red by 0.1
19.81.4
15.416.8
Auto5.2
Teleop11.9
End2.7
Third
3007
#45
13.42.6
9.412.0
Auto6.6
Teleop4.7
End2.1
blue by 2.3
4198
#48
15.71.4
15.316.7
Auto5.5
Teleop8.7
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
25%Melody oddsEarned67%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed24%Ensemble oddsEarned