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Red45
469310.4
422515.1
214320.4
Blue58
25139.7
361014.1
249129.2
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions375302060801004558

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2143
#11
20.40.3
16.917.2
Auto8.2
Teleop9.5
End2.7
blue by 8.8
2491
#14
29.20.2
27.327.1
Auto10.0
Teleop16.3
End2.9
Second
4225
#32
15.10.3
10.310.6
Auto6.9
Teleop7.1
End1.2
red by 1.1
3610
#26
14.10.3
11.811.5
Auto7.2
Teleop6.2
End0.6
Third
4693
#55
10.40.2
8.48.6
Auto4.6
Teleop4.9
End1.0
red by 0.8
2513
#27
9.70.3
6.86.5
Auto3.7
Teleop5.2
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsMissed25%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed