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Red64
420719.2
878710.2
466324.6
Blue53
247223.2
220723.3
91575.1
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions505230406070806453

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.61.2
21.622.8
Auto9.4
Teleop12.3
End2.8
red by 1.2
2207
#17
23.30.7
22.923.6
Auto11.2
Teleop10.1
End1.9
Second
4207
#40
19.22.1
14.816.9
Auto8.4
Teleop8.2
End2.5
blue by 4.1
2472
#16
23.20.4
22.322.6
Auto6.9
Teleop14.1
End2.2
Third
8787
#35
10.22.1
8.911.0
Auto3.2
Teleop5.7
End1.3
red by 5.0
9157
#61
5.10.7
1.92.5
Auto4.3
Teleop0.5
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
36%Melody oddsEarned22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
31%Ensemble oddsMissed20%Ensemble oddsMissed