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Red60
545420.1
198217.3
193917.5
Blue70
941026.1
180616.5
421315.0
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions606340801006070

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5454
#19
20.10.1
20.020.1
Auto7.0
Teleop12.9
End0.2
blue by 6.0
26.10.3
25.926.2
Auto11.2
Teleop13.1
End1.8
Second
1939
#16
17.50.1
17.417.5
Auto5.5
Teleop10.4
End1.6
red by 1.0
1806
#28
16.50.3
16.216.5
Auto4.7
Teleop10.9
End0.9
Third
1982
#10
17.30.1
17.217.3
Auto8.9
Teleop6.5
End1.9
red by 2.3
4213
#15
15.00.3
14.815.1
Auto6.8
Teleop7.2
End1.0