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Red21
192712.8
36413.4
218313.9
Blue57
303925.7
880822.8
410722.2
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions385402060802157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2183
#18
13.91.7
12.510.8
Auto2.7
Teleop10.3
End0.9
blue by 11.8
3039
#12
25.70.9
17.818.7
Auto9.7
Teleop14.4
End1.5
Second
364
#16
13.41.7
14.813.1
Auto3.2
Teleop8.8
End1.5
blue by 9.3
22.80.9
12.213.1
Auto9.3
Teleop11.1
End2.4
Third
1927
#27
12.81.7
9.17.4
Auto4.6
Teleop7.5
End0.7
blue by 9.4
22.20.5
16.717.2
Auto7.5
Teleop12.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
22%Melody oddsMissed30%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed