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Red50
880822.8
401310.3
395910.8
Blue64
97179.2
95035.5
804431.6
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions454402060801005064

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.81.0
22.421.4
Auto9.3
Teleop11.1
End2.4
blue by 8.8
31.60.3
26.526.9
Auto9.2
Teleop20.3
End2.1
Second
3959
#20
10.81.0
11.510.4
Auto3.1
Teleop6.8
End1.0
red by 1.6
9717
#22
9.20.5
9.49.9
Auto3.7
Teleop4.6
End0.9
Third
10.31.0
6.85.7
Auto0.2
Teleop9.2
End0.9
red by 4.8
9503
#36
5.50.5
4.04.4
Auto3.4
Teleop1.8
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
34%Melody oddsMissed24%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsEarned7%Ensemble oddsMissed