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Red78
482920.2
429014.2
319624.5
Blue39
153319.3
651211.8
87577.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions633202040801007839

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.51.2
23.124.3
Auto8.4
Teleop14.9
End1.2
red by 5.2
1533
#18
19.30.4
16.817.2
Auto8.0
Teleop9.8
End1.4
Second
20.21.2
16.918.1
Auto8.0
Teleop11.2
End1.1
red by 8.4
11.80.4
10.811.2
Auto5.1
Teleop3.9
End2.7
Third
14.21.2
13.014.2
Auto5.9
Teleop7.0
End1.3
red by 6.3
8757
#22
7.90.4
5.45.8
Auto4.2
Teleop3.0
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
41%Melody oddsEarned18%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed