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Red20
519010.9
87587.5
88048.3
Blue21
456121.7
551811.7
33366.7
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions243201020405060702021

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5190
#20
10.90.2
8.28.1
Auto3.9
Teleop6.3
End0.6
blue by 10.9
21.70.5
17.016.6
Auto5.8
Teleop15.5
End0.4
Second
8804
#17
8.30.2
3.33.2
Auto3.0
Teleop3.9
End1.4
blue by 3.4
5518
#23
11.70.5
3.53.0
Auto4.4
Teleop5.2
End2.1
Third
8758
#35
7.50.2
10.710.5
Auto3.6
Teleop3.3
End0.6
red by 0.8
3336
#25
6.70.5
7.36.9
Auto2.3
Teleop3.6
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
8%Melody oddsMissed22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed