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Red64
490931.0
511212.7
490523.5
Blue103
568742.8
17731.2
632848.2
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions611305010015020064103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4909
#13
31.00.3
31.230.9
Auto13.3
Teleop14.5
End3.2
blue by 17.3
48.20.4
42.642.1
Auto17.1
Teleop23.9
End7.2
Second
4905
#27
23.50.3
24.123.9
Auto8.1
Teleop12.6
End2.9
blue by 19.3
42.80.4
35.635.1
Auto11.8
Teleop28.7
End2.3
Third
5112
#45
12.70.3
8.07.7
Auto8.0
Teleop4.0
End0.8
blue by 18.6
177
#2
31.20.4
31.431.0
Auto9.6
Teleop19.1
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
57%Melody oddsEarned99%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
20%Ensemble oddsMissed59%Ensemble oddsEarned