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Red139
169939.8
8836.6
287732.2
Blue118
271335.5
176837.7
110026.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions120107050150200250139118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.80.6
39.339.8
Auto13.4
Teleop23.5
End2.9
red by 2.1
37.70.4
37.337.7
Auto15.1
Teleop21.5
End1.1
Second
88
#17
36.60.6
36.136.7
Auto12.3
Teleop19.2
End5.1
red by 1.1
2713
#18
35.50.4
35.135.5
Auto10.3
Teleop23.7
End1.5
Third
2877
#26
32.20.6
31.732.3
Auto11.3
Teleop18.6
End2.4
red by 6.0
1100
#33
26.20.4
25.826.2
Auto8.8
Teleop15.5
End1.9