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Red55
81115.3
13815.6
791319.8
Blue40
804617.8
870816.6
50110.6
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions535430405060705540

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.80.1
19.819.9
Auto7.8
Teleop9.8
End2.1
red by 2.0
8046
#17
17.80.1
18.318.1
Auto8.8
Teleop8.5
End0.6
Second
138
#22
15.60.1
15.515.6
Auto3.5
Teleop10.3
End1.7
blue by 1.1
16.60.1
17.016.9
Auto6.1
Teleop7.7
End2.7
Third
811
#9
15.30.1
15.315.4
Auto8.1
Teleop5.4
End1.8
red by 4.8
501
#25
10.60.1
11.010.9
Auto2.9
Teleop5.0
End2.7