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Red72
329718.3
453925.1
418118.2
Blue13
327712.6
310222.4
46237.4
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions685301001502007213

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4539
#21
25.10.8
28.929.7
Auto7.6
Teleop14.9
End2.6
red by 2.7
22.42.5
22.820.3
Auto7.0
Teleop12.5
End2.9
Second
18.30.8
16.317.1
Auto6.1
Teleop4.9
End7.3
red by 5.8
3277
#12
12.62.5
18.516.0
Auto5.9
Teleop6.2
End0.5
Third
18.20.8
14.915.7
Auto5.4
Teleop10.9
End1.9
red by 10.8
4623
#22
7.43.6
8.65.1
Auto1.1
Teleop4.0
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
26%Melody oddsEarned38%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
71%Ensemble oddsMissed22%Ensemble oddsMissed