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Red60
696826.7
321614.4
90187.4
Blue4
94264.9
928710.2
83874.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4728020406080100604

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.72.2
20.923.1
Auto6.9
Teleop17.7
End2.2
red by 16.6
9287
#41
10.22.5
11.99.4
Auto4.8
Teleop3.4
End2.0
Second
3216
#12
14.41.3
14.615.9
Auto6.8
Teleop5.6
End2.0
red by 9.5
9426
#36
4.92.6
9.06.4
Auto3.3
Teleop1.6
End-0.0
Third
9018
#43
7.42.1
4.66.7
Auto2.9
Teleop3.4
End1.1
red by 3.0
8387
#37
4.42.5
6.94.5
Auto2.4
Teleop0.9
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
27%Melody oddsEarned17%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
25%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed