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Red43
115521.7
188021.4
36910.1
Blue34
286930.5
873914.0
3953.9
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions605301001502002503003504004334

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.70.0
21.721.7
Auto7.3
Teleop12.5
End1.9
blue by 8.8
30.50.0
30.530.5
Auto9.7
Teleop19.0
End1.8
Second
1880
#18
21.40.0
21.421.4
Auto5.8
Teleop14.5
End1.1
red by 7.4
8739
#12
14.00.0
14.014.0
Auto7.0
Teleop6.2
End0.9
Third
369
#4
10.10.0
10.110.1
Auto4.7
Teleop5.3
End0.1
red by 6.2
395
#10
3.90.0
3.93.9
Auto0.8
Teleop2.3
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
29%Melody odds42%Melody odds
Ensemble
12%Ensemble odds8%Ensemble odds