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Red75
857028.9
188017.1
160111.5
Blue7
40127.8
7437.1
77308.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions582204080100120757

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.91.3
27.028.3
Auto11.7
Teleop15.5
End1.7
red by 19.9
7730
#13
8.91.3
8.67.3
Auto3.2
Teleop5.3
End0.4
Second
1880
#21
17.11.3
12.513.8
Auto5.6
Teleop10.4
End1.1
red by 9.3
4012
#34
7.82.1
6.34.2
Auto2.8
Teleop4.8
End0.2
Third
1601
#22
11.51.3
9.010.3
Auto3.1
Teleop7.1
End1.4
red by 4.4
743
#49
7.12.1
9.27.1
Auto3.3
Teleop2.4
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
46%Melody oddsEarned11%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed