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Red39
549216.9
962211.4
814011.2
Blue49
408514.4
402726.1
29113.4
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions395502060803949

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5492
#27
16.90.2
13.914.1
Auto5.8
Teleop10.4
End0.6
blue by 9.2
26.10.2
24.924.7
Auto12.3
Teleop11.2
End2.6
Second
9622
#25
11.40.2
10.110.3
Auto4.8
Teleop6.5
End0.2
blue by 3.0
4085
#21
14.40.4
11.611.2
Auto6.6
Teleop7.6
End0.2
Third
8140
#32
11.20.2
13.113.3
Auto4.5
Teleop6.7
End0.0
blue by 2.2
291
#33
13.40.4
11.010.7
Auto5.3
Teleop7.1
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
37%Melody oddsEarned48%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed