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Red59
494636.8
368337.9
747514.3
Blue71
373923.4
77221.9
540630.8
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10068501505971

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.92.2
40.438.2
Auto15.7
Teleop19.3
End2.9
red by 7.1
30.80.2
28.328.6
Auto9.8
Teleop15.6
End5.5
Second
36.82.2
34.131.9
Auto13.3
Teleop19.6
End4.0
red by 13.5
3739
#44
23.40.2
19.820.0
Auto9.2
Teleop14.1
End0.1
Third
7475
#35
14.32.2
12.09.9
Auto5.6
Teleop8.9
End-0.2
blue by 7.7
772
#20
21.90.2
17.217.4
Auto8.8
Teleop10.3
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
92%Melody oddsMissed38%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
41%Ensemble oddsMissed22%Ensemble oddsMissed