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Red40
978523.4
86529.3
97827.2
Blue75
713616.0
888425.6
771224.0
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions647140801001204075

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
865
#12
29.31.2
27.626.4
Auto12.0
Teleop14.5
End2.8
red by 3.7
8884
#13
25.60.8
27.228.0
Auto7.6
Teleop15.3
End2.7
Second
9785
#33
23.41.2
23.221.9
Auto6.4
Teleop15.5
End1.5
blue by 0.6
24.00.8
21.021.8
Auto10.5
Teleop11.1
End2.3
Third
9782
#28
7.21.2
7.86.5
Auto3.9
Teleop3.3
End0.0
blue by 8.8
7136
#30
16.00.8
15.516.2
Auto6.6
Teleop7.3
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
46%Melody oddsMissed58%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
35%Ensemble oddsMissed34%Ensemble oddsEarned