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Red103
755832.6
128522.2
540931.8
Blue131
447637.7
872924.7
403942.4
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9212050150200103131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7558
#18
32.60.0
32.632.6
Auto10.3
Teleop19.0
End3.3
blue by 9.8
42.40.1
42.542.4
Auto12.5
Teleop26.7
End3.3
Second
31.80.0
31.731.8
Auto6.1
Teleop16.8
End8.9
blue by 5.9
37.70.1
37.837.7
Auto11.6
Teleop23.2
End3.0
Third
1285
#11
22.20.0
22.222.2
Auto7.4
Teleop10.6
End4.1
blue by 2.5
8729
#17
24.70.1
24.824.7
Auto8.4
Teleop13.5
End2.7