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Red35
130516.6
958010.1
40156.6
Blue6
69755.3
68545.3
698710.9
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions37270206080100356

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
16.60.5
18.217.8
Auto4.5
Teleop10.7
End1.4
red by 5.7
6987
#27
10.92.2
8.36.1
Auto5.3
Teleop5.1
End0.6
Second
9580
#11
10.10.5
11.010.6
Auto5.3
Teleop4.0
End0.9
red by 4.8
6854
#33
5.32.2
10.07.8
Auto2.9
Teleop1.4
End1.1
Third
4015
#28
6.60.5
2.92.4
Auto2.8
Teleop3.1
End0.7
red by 1.4
6975
#32
5.32.2
7.35.2
Auto4.0
Teleop0.4
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
17%Melody oddsMissed9%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed7%Ensemble oddsMissed