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Red60
705814.6
571922.2
978518.9
Blue50
492024.3
69753.7
503215.4
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3939203050606050

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
22.21.7
15.316.9
Auto7.4
Teleop14.4
End0.3
blue by 2.1
4920
#10
24.31.4
17.118.5
Auto12.4
Teleop10.7
End1.2
Second
18.92.8
9.712.5
Auto4.0
Teleop12.2
End2.7
red by 3.5
5032
#13
15.40.9
14.315.2
Auto5.6
Teleop7.7
End2.1
Third
7058
#15
14.62.8
10.112.9
Auto5.8
Teleop6.9
End2.0
red by 10.9
6975
#27
3.70.9
3.94.7
Auto2.5
Teleop0.1
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
18%Melody oddsEarned9%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
32%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed