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Red52
87899.5
808120.7
373919.9
Blue49
375615.1
494015.6
568912.5
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions52412060801005249

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.70.4
19.119.5
Auto5.9
Teleop12.0
End2.7
red by 5.1
4940
#11
15.60.4
13.213.6
Auto5.0
Teleop8.9
End1.8
Second
19.90.4
18.719.1
Auto7.9
Teleop11.5
End0.5
red by 4.8
3756
#22
15.10.4
13.113.5
Auto5.6
Teleop7.2
End2.3
Third
8789
#16
9.50.4
7.98.3
Auto3.1
Teleop3.9
End2.4
blue by 3.0
5689
#23
12.50.4
11.812.2
Auto6.7
Teleop4.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
23%Melody oddsEarned22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
19%Ensemble oddsMissed21%Ensemble oddsMissed