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Red20
247116.8
363612.1
37128.9
Blue50
95512.4
135912.9
99714.4
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions42411020305060702050

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
16.81.3
17.115.8
Auto4.5
Teleop11.5
End0.8
red by 2.4
997
#16
14.40.2
13.513.7
Auto4.5
Teleop7.8
End2.0
Second
3636
#24
12.11.3
12.411.1
Auto4.4
Teleop6.4
End1.3
blue by 0.8
1359
#13
12.90.2
12.112.3
Auto4.0
Teleop5.9
End2.9
Third
3712
#18
8.91.3
8.47.1
Auto2.9
Teleop5.2
End0.8
blue by 3.5
955
#5
12.40.2
11.411.6
Auto5.0
Teleop5.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
12%Melody oddsMissed20%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed27%Ensemble oddsEarned