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Red119
646516.3
252142.2
154027.1
Blue85
99714.8
247124.3
404333.6
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions927920406010012014016011985

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.20.8
40.841.6
Auto16.7
Teleop22.8
End2.7
red by 8.5
33.60.3
33.834.0
Auto14.3
Teleop16.8
End2.5
Second
27.10.8
25.726.5
Auto11.6
Teleop10.8
End4.6
red by 2.8
24.30.3
24.424.7
Auto6.3
Teleop16.1
End1.9
Third
6465
#28
16.30.8
15.015.8
Auto7.0
Teleop7.5
End1.8
red by 1.6
997
#24
14.80.3
14.514.8
Auto4.6
Teleop7.5
End2.7