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Red49
574016.7
112615.5
751511.9
Blue44
261424.7
34927.2
727411.4
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions435020304060704944

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5740
#27
16.71.0
13.414.4
Auto5.5
Teleop9.9
End1.3
blue by 8.0
2614
#33
24.70.0
19.219.2
Auto10.4
Teleop9.5
End4.8
Second
1126
#13
15.51.0
15.716.7
Auto5.9
Teleop7.4
End2.2
red by 4.1
7274
#45
11.40.0
13.713.7
Auto4.2
Teleop5.5
End1.7
Third
7515
#28
11.91.0
10.811.8
Auto3.5
Teleop6.3
End2.2
red by 4.7
3492
#46
7.20.0
11.411.4
Auto3.5
Teleop3.4
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsEarned16%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed13%Ensemble oddsMissed