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Red50
552819.2
399621.4
96237.0
Blue49
495214.7
49557.5
398619.3
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions50412060805049

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.40.5
19.419.9
Auto7.2
Teleop12.7
End1.5
red by 2.1
3986
#11
19.31.0
18.319.3
Auto8.1
Teleop9.5
End1.7
Second
19.20.6
18.018.5
Auto10.0
Teleop7.4
End1.8
red by 4.5
4952
#25
14.70.9
14.915.8
Auto5.7
Teleop6.7
End2.3
Third
9623
#24
7.00.5
6.87.3
Auto4.2
Teleop2.5
End0.3
blue by 0.5
4955
#37
7.50.9
5.36.3
Auto1.8
Teleop3.8
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsEarned8%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed