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Red36
350621.3
857516.1
99983.6
Blue34
94774.8
691925.1
99975.3
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions674601001502003634

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.32.2
21.619.5
Auto7.2
Teleop13.3
End0.6
blue by 3.9
6919
#13
25.11.3
32.931.6
Auto10.2
Teleop13.9
End1.0
Second
8575
#24
16.12.2
23.921.7
Auto6.6
Teleop8.2
End1.2
red by 10.8
9997
#15
5.32.2
8.26.1
Auto3.9
Teleop1.3
End0.3
Third
9998
#16
3.63.6
8.24.6
Auto2.0
Teleop1.4
End0.3
blue by 1.1
9477
#25
4.81.3
10.28.9
Auto2.8
Teleop0.8
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
41%Melody oddsMissed8%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed16%Ensemble oddsMissed