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Red47
99966.2
886612.9
99975.3
Blue49
281517.9
39761.2
81376.1
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions232101030404749

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
12.90.9
12.713.6
Auto4.8
Teleop7.3
End0.7
blue by 5.0
17.90.8
14.415.2
Auto10.8
Teleop5.4
End1.6
Second
9996
#22
6.21.6
5.16.7
Auto2.6
Teleop3.0
End0.8
red by 0.2
8137
#10
6.10.8
6.77.5
Auto2.4
Teleop2.6
End0.9
Third
9997
#15
5.31.6
5.26.8
Auto3.9
Teleop1.3
End0.3
red by 4.1
3976
#21
1.20.8
1.01.8
Auto1.5
Teleop-0.4
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
6%Melody oddsMissed5%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
5%Ensemble oddsEarned19%Ensemble oddsMissed