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Red68
87957.3
880630.4
816916.6
Blue64
94225.9
948337.0
95475.7
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions533901001502002506864

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.41.1
24.025.1
Auto13.1
Teleop14.3
End2.9
blue by 6.6
37.03.0
27.830.9
Auto17.8
Teleop18.0
End1.3
Second
8169
#20
16.61.1
13.114.2
Auto7.9
Teleop7.4
End1.3
red by 10.7
9422
#38
5.93.0
4.47.4
Auto1.8
Teleop3.4
End0.8
Third
8795
#16
7.31.9
9.211.1
Auto4.8
Teleop1.6
End0.9
red by 1.6
9547
#13
5.71.8
4.46.2
Auto2.9
Teleop2.1
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
26%Melody oddsEarned23%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed