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Red96
645933.5
94403.6
698913.1
Blue33
90779.4
81469.5
952311.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54340204060801009633

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.51.4
29.430.7
Auto12.9
Teleop19.1
End1.5
red by 21.8
9523
#15
11.70.0
13.313.3
Auto3.8
Teleop7.4
End0.5
Second
6989
#23
13.11.4
13.715.1
Auto5.2
Teleop7.4
End0.5
red by 3.6
8146
#21
9.50.1
9.19.1
Auto4.8
Teleop3.5
End1.3
Third
9440
#11
3.61.4
3.54.9
Auto2.4
Teleop0.3
End0.9
blue by 5.8
9077
#32
9.40.1
11.111.0
Auto1.6
Teleop5.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsEarned23%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
22%Ensemble oddsEarned19%Ensemble oddsMissed