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Red10
43642.8
46107.9
94488.3
Blue19
874911.1
47177.1
37435.8
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2231010405060701019

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9448
#16
8.31.1
4.23.1
Auto3.9
Teleop3.8
End0.7
blue by 2.8
8749
#10
11.11.1
13.712.6
Auto4.2
Teleop4.9
End2.0
Second
4610
#30
7.91.8
8.97.1
Auto2.1
Teleop5.1
End0.7
red by 0.8
4717
#15
7.11.1
6.25.1
Auto2.4
Teleop4.0
End0.7
Third
4364
#41
2.81.8
8.06.2
Auto0.6
Teleop1.4
End0.7
blue by 3.0
3743
#31
5.80.7
7.06.4
Auto4.2
Teleop1.1
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
10%Melody oddsMissed10%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed