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Red103
541126.5
367633.6
914026.9
Blue115
23128.9
731232.2
857624.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions96864060120140160180103115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.60.4
33.333.6
Auto15.7
Teleop15.4
End2.6
red by 1.5
32.20.7
30.230.9
Auto11.3
Teleop17.7
End3.2
Second
9140
#16
26.90.4
26.526.9
Auto9.1
Teleop16.4
End1.3
blue by 2.1
231
#11
28.90.7
27.027.7
Auto7.1
Teleop17.5
End4.4
Third
5411
#29
26.50.4
26.126.5
Auto8.5
Teleop17.2
End0.9
red by 2.4
8576
#21
24.20.7
22.222.9
Auto8.5
Teleop13.4
End2.3