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Red70
32427.8
712122.8
951214.7
Blue43
542726.4
14836.4
71156.7
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6775020401001201401607043

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
324
#9
27.80.6
24.725.2
Auto7.5
Teleop19.6
End0.8
blue by 8.6
148
#5
36.41.6
34.332.7
Auto12.5
Teleop19.7
End4.2
Second
7121
#19
22.80.6
21.422.0
Auto7.9
Teleop12.7
End2.2
blue by 3.6
26.41.6
26.524.9
Auto11.6
Teleop12.8
End2.0
Third
9512
#41
14.70.6
15.115.7
Auto6.5
Teleop8.0
End0.1
red by 8.0
7115
#40
6.71.6
5.84.2
Auto3.6
Teleop2.8
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
49%Melody oddsEarned79%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
5%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsMissed