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Red104
817717.6
541432.3
543127.5
Blue95
636926.5
419221.0
542726.4
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions808060709010010495

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5414
#17
32.30.5
30.831.3
Auto8.0
Teleop23.4
End0.9
red by 5.8
6369
#11
26.50.5
25.726.3
Auto8.6
Teleop17.6
End0.3
Second
27.50.5
26.126.5
Auto7.4
Teleop18.2
End1.9
red by 1.1
26.40.5
25.626.2
Auto11.6
Teleop12.8
End2.0
Third
8177
#32
17.60.5
16.116.6
Auto7.1
Teleop9.7
End0.7
blue by 3.4
4192
#15
21.00.5
20.220.7
Auto9.2
Teleop10.3
End1.4