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Red50
817711.0
761612.7
147725.2
Blue13
95215.8
12555.2
851513.3
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4026010203050605013

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.21.7
16.318.0
Auto9.4
Teleop14.4
End1.4
red by 11.9
8515
#18
13.31.5
10.18.6
Auto6.0
Teleop5.8
End1.5
Second
7616
#25
12.71.7
6.17.9
Auto3.6
Teleop7.8
End1.3
red by 6.9
9521
#19
5.81.5
7.35.8
Auto0.7
Teleop3.9
End1.1
Third
8177
#15
11.01.7
12.013.7
Auto4.9
Teleop3.6
End2.5
red by 5.8
1255
#27
5.21.5
7.45.9
Auto2.8
Teleop0.2
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsEarned10%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed