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Red40
463916.8
95173.8
731218.2
Blue17
95156.6
43282.4
95215.8
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions45130204060804017

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
18.20.3
17.317.6
Auto8.2
Teleop7.4
End2.6
red by 11.6
9515
#30
6.60.3
7.47.0
Auto2.5
Teleop3.7
End0.4
Second
16.80.3
16.116.3
Auto4.6
Teleop10.3
End1.8
red by 11.0
9521
#19
5.80.3
6.56.2
Auto0.7
Teleop3.9
End1.1
Third
9517
#32
3.80.3
3.43.7
Auto1.0
Teleop2.3
End0.5
red by 1.4
4328
#38
2.40.3
1.81.5
Auto0.4
Teleop1.0
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
5%Melody oddsMissed5%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
20%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed