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Red110
851519.6
288128.8
601728.9
Blue99
271428.5
384735.2
837018.5
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions779205015020011099

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.90.9
26.827.7
Auto7.7
Teleop18.7
End2.6
blue by 6.3
3847
#12
35.20.4
34.835.2
Auto13.5
Teleop17.8
End4.0
Second
2881
#10
28.80.9
26.727.6
Auto12.0
Teleop14.9
End1.9
red by 0.3
28.50.4
28.128.5
Auto12.2
Teleop15.2
End1.1
Third
8515
#19
19.60.9
17.518.4
Auto9.1
Teleop9.5
End1.0
red by 1.1
8370
#17
18.50.4
18.118.5
Auto6.4
Teleop11.2
End0.8