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Red40
96559.8
38029.9
637720.4
Blue18
95333.9
61802.5
908812.9
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3826010203050604018

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.40.2
13.613.9
Auto8.6
Teleop10.7
End1.1
red by 7.5
9088
#19
12.91.2
8.37.1
Auto3.4
Teleop9.0
End0.5
Second
3802
#18
9.90.2
9.59.7
Auto3.7
Teleop3.7
End2.5
red by 6.0
9533
#30
3.91.2
11.210.0
Auto1.8
Teleop1.0
End1.1
Third
9655
#31
9.80.2
9.910.1
Auto4.6
Teleop4.5
End0.7
red by 7.3
6180
#37
2.51.2
5.34.1
Auto1.6
Teleop0.0
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsMissed22%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed11%Ensemble oddsMissed