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Red18
96559.8
852810.8
61802.5
Blue16
59864.7
55037.5
56135.0
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions262101030405060701816

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8528
#17
10.80.5
8.78.2
Auto6.3
Teleop3.2
End1.2
red by 3.3
5503
#29
7.50.4
5.55.1
Auto0.6
Teleop5.1
End1.9
Second
9655
#31
9.80.5
10.19.5
Auto4.6
Teleop4.5
End0.7
red by 4.8
5613
#32
5.00.4
7.47.0
Auto1.6
Teleop2.6
End0.8
Third
6180
#37
2.50.5
4.13.6
Auto1.6
Teleop0.0
End0.9
blue by 2.2
5986
#38
4.70.4
6.46.0
Auto1.7
Teleop2.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
9%Melody oddsMissed17%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed