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Red43
680025.7
55037.5
268717.6
Blue24
637720.4
71258.4
47349.2
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46310204060804324

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.70.3
17.517.8
Auto10.1
Teleop14.2
End1.4
red by 5.3
20.40.7
14.313.7
Auto8.6
Teleop10.7
End1.1
Second
2687
#13
17.60.3
15.615.9
Auto7.0
Teleop9.8
End0.8
red by 8.4
4734
#26
9.20.7
9.58.8
Auto4.5
Teleop4.1
End0.6
Third
5503
#29
7.50.3
7.07.3
Auto0.6
Teleop5.1
End1.9
blue by 0.9
7125
#28
8.40.7
6.15.5
Auto2.8
Teleop5.3
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsMissed17%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsMissed