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Red32
459816.6
91388.3
33746.8
Blue29
76348.4
156911.0
418313.6
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions353410203040503229

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4598
#10
16.61.0
14.613.6
Auto7.2
Teleop7.6
End1.7
red by 3.0
4183
#40
13.60.5
10.19.7
Auto5.7
Teleop7.3
End0.6
Second
9138
#20
8.31.0
4.94.0
Auto3.6
Teleop3.7
End0.9
blue by 2.8
1569
#41
11.00.5
10.710.2
Auto5.2
Teleop3.8
End2.1
Third
3374
#44
6.81.0
11.310.3
Auto3.6
Teleop2.1
End1.1
blue by 1.6
7634
#24
8.40.5
10.510.0
Auto4.7
Teleop1.1
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
14%Melody oddsMissed13%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
20%Ensemble oddsMissed10%Ensemble oddsMissed