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Red62
29987.9
173133.6
859218.8
Blue0
409917.0
42218.1
33910.7
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6949020406080100120620

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.60.0
33.633.6
Auto15.7
Teleop15.1
End2.8
red by 15.5
422
#2DQ
18.10.4
18.518.1
Auto6.2
Teleop11.3
End0.6
Second
8592
#13
18.80.0
18.718.8
Auto4.9
Teleop11.0
End2.9
red by 1.7
4099
#4DQ
17.00.4
17.417.0
Auto6.8
Teleop9.4
End0.8
Third
2998
#24
7.90.0
7.87.9
Auto3.1
Teleop4.5
End0.3
blue by 2.8
339
#17DQ
10.70.4
11.110.7
Auto4.0
Teleop5.2
End1.5