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Red103
366336.8
451212.4
131837.2
Blue83
945016.8
451320.1
321823.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions966005015010383

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
37.20.4
36.036.5
Auto11.9
Teleop20.2
End5.1
red by 13.8
23.40.5
23.023.5
Auto8.3
Teleop14.1
End1.0
Second
36.80.4
35.636.0
Auto15.1
Teleop20.0
End1.6
red by 16.7
20.10.5
19.720.2
Auto9.9
Teleop9.4
End0.8
Third
4512
#18
12.40.4
11.211.6
Auto5.8
Teleop6.5
End0.1
blue by 4.5
9450
#17
16.80.5
16.417.0
Auto8.0
Teleop7.3
End1.6